The other bet we recommend is under 2.
Although it could choose to rest key players, Italy is eyeing a first-place finish in the group to earn a slightly easier Round of 16 opponent.
Last time out, Mancini's last thrashed Switzerland 3-0, the same scoreline they beat Turkey by in the tournament's opening fixture.
This game sets up to be much more like the Switzerland game, in which Wales lost the xG battle by a 1.
While they therefore face a tough challenge to get a result, the Welsh will at least back themselves to hold firm considering they have conceded just five first-half goals in their last 21 fixtures in all competitions.
George North again starts in the midfield and his partnership with Jonathan Davies is growing into something big.